BN's 3 early blunders give
Opposition a headstart
DR BRIDGET WELSH is associate professor of political science at Singapore University. She is travelling around Malaysia to provide her GE13 analyses exclusively to Malaysiakini. Bridget can be reached at bwelsh@smu.edu.sg.
COMMENT
In assessing any
electoral campaign, it is essential to review the assumptions and implications
of different strategic moves.
Three
decisions on the part of BN in the last two weeks are leading to tectonic
shifts within the electorate, and thus strengthen the opposition’s position
nationally.
These are:
1. The use of sex
videos against PAS and possibly other opposition politicians.
2. The fielding of
Perkasa leader Zulkifli Noordin in Shah Alam.
3. The action by
the Registrar of Societies (ROS) in not recognising DAP’s central executive
committee (CEC).
The combined effect of these moves
have strengthened the opposition coalition and negatively impact the BN’s
position with the electorate in the lead up to the May 5 general election.
Let’s take each of these in turn:
1. Smut videos
Since 1999, the use of sex has
become the mode of attack by BN. The list includes PKR de facto leader Anwar
Ibrahim, MCA president Chua Soi Lek, PKR deputy president Azmin Ali, and more
recently, PAS secretary-general Mustafa Ali, among others.
Sex videos have also played a role
in the Umno polls, including against caretaker Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak
himself. The aim is to use character
assassination to tarnish reputations, and to do so through personal attacks.
Somehow, the incumbent government
has in its mind, that by using sex, they can sway voters. This tactic raises
some interesting questions: Why has the use of smut become the tool of attack
by BN? Why does BN think this can work? And why do they continue to use this
tactic when it is clearly not working?
The use of smut by BN reflects more
on the party itself than the opposition. It
fundamentally shows a lack of respect for the rules of decency, especially
given than many of these videos are clearly constructed through technology
rather than truth.
It also reveals what their own
priorities are. Somehow, there is an assumption that the Malaysian electorate
will be swayed by smut. This shows how BN conceives the priorities of the
general public.
The evidence shows that the original
Anwar sodomy attack backfired politically in 1999. Further questions have been
raised through the media barrage and a second trial. Polls show that the
overwhelming majority of Malaysians see the second trial and subsequent videos
for what they are - shallow political ploys.
The conservative
Malays they are targeting are offended by the use of smut. Many in the public do not think that these videos are
credible. The now sub-contracted production of such sex tapes has led to
diminishing returns that are clearly backfiring.
Nowhere was this
clearer when the video allegedly portraying Mustafa Ali was released last week.
Apparently, Najib’s Umno decided to go after one of the most powerful and
respected senior leaders in PAS.
However, the
impact has ironically led to a strengthening of resolve among the opposition to
work together to form a new government. When a party is attacked,
people naturally rally together. This has been the pattern for the opposition
coalition since the Perak crisis.
BN’s use of smut has ultimately hurt
itself as it highlights the use of unchecked personal attacks to hold onto
power. Given that one of the BN’s party presidents has his own sex video that
he has acknowledged as real, BN appears to be
nothing but hypocritical.
Furthermore, they have misread the
public by assuming that they can be swayed by base innuendo. Indeed, in terms
of the electorate, smut is not a determinant of voting behaviour.
2. Fielding Zulkifli Noordin
Decisions matter, especially those
that provoke incredulity. The announcement of lawyer Zulkifli Noordin as a
candidate for Umno overshadows all the other candidates, including Najib
himself.
While there are some talented names
in the Umno list, they are being tainted by the appointment of a person who is
perceived to be an ultra chauvinist, and who
has openly attacked Hinduism and Christianity in a manner that had provoked
public outrage.
The video evidence
of Zulkifli disparaging the Hindu religion was already viral and has reached
record circulations, especially among the Indian community which will be
decisive in this election. The
electorate is understandably asking whether the views of Zulkifli are those of
Najib’s. He, after all, is the person who appointed the candidate who has
openly shown disrespect towards many fellow Malaysians.
This tactic also raises questions:
Does Najib endorse the views that are being advocated by Zulkifli ? Why is
there so little respect for multicultural tolerance among the candidates in the
BN list?
The views of the caretaker prime
minister on the racial statements of Zulkifli have not been made clear. These
are among the questions that Najib will now be pressured to answer as the video
footage goes into outlying areas.
Politically, the use of race has
long been a feature of Malaysian politics, but the content and tone of the
Zulkifli remarks reflect a defensive (and offensive) anger and reactionary
position on ethnic relations.
This election will be shaped by the
ability of the winner to reach out across different communities. We have seen
tactically the use of racial polarisation since Najib took office in 2009 in
the different by-elections, but never has any premier, who is supposed to
represent the entire country, opted for endorsing these views through the
candidate selection.
This is
backfiring, not only among non-Malays, but also among younger and more exposed
Malays who do not need the crutch of racial fear and insecurity to be confident
and proud of their achievements.
3. ROS' harassment
The ROS letter to DAP yesterday
brought out into the open the persistent use of government departments to
threaten political parties, and it showcased underhanded tactics.
This practice has been common for
years, especially in Sabah and Sarawak. Despite
the ROS’ approval of Pakatan’s registration, it has been held up in the
ministries for years. The ROS is being used for political aims, thus
undermining its reputation and further undermining the credibility of the
country’s institutions.
This tactic is perhaps the most
blatant. Do they assume that people do not respect fair play? Do they think
that Malaysians are willing to accept a process that is unfair?
The decision to deny the CEC of the
DAP highlights BN’s tactical decision to use state power at the last minute to
create disarray and sow confusion.
The decision foreshadows a possible
deregistration and potential use of these legal administrative procedures to
hold onto power. By going after DAP in such a
manner, the BN underestimates the wishes of ordinary Malaysians for fair play
and decency.
The impact has ironically brought in
even more cooperation among the opposition, and the possibility of DAP now
contesting under the banners of PAS and PKR has the potential to showcase a
shared commitment. The opposition
coalition emerged stronger from this move as it reflects confidence and trust
in each other.
There is plenty of time for the
political parties to communicate the decision to the electorate. Ironically,
after bruising inter-party seat negotiations, the ROS action has moved the
parties further together.
Losing the PR battle
Tactics are crucial in any campaign.
Those that cross the line only undermine those who use them. BN’s moves of late
illustrate that the choices they are making do not take into account of how
they will be perceived on the ground.
Studies on dirty tactics vary. In this case, however, BN’s tactics are likely to go
beyond what is acceptable. They seem to
underestimate the sense of fair play among Malaysians. On many fronts, they
appear to insult the intelligence of the electorate in the assumptions of how
they will vote and why.
Malaysian
politics have shown that sentiment is a powerful force, potentially more
powerful than money or machinery. This has been crucial in close elections. It is the
decisive force that pushes voters toward one side or another. In the battle for
sentiment to date, the BN coalition has indeed miscalculated.
DR
BRIDGET WELSH is associate professor of political science at Singapore
Management University. She is travelling around Malaysia to provide her GE13
analyses exclusively to Malaysiakini. Bridget can be reached
at bwelsh@smu.edu.sg.
