Are Malays in Johor ready for Anwar?
The 13th
General Election is a window of opportunity seen only after 55 years. Such a
golden opportunity was created due to several factors such as the advancement
of the communication technology that allows information to be uploaded within
seconds anywhere any time. Hence, information can no longer be censored if one
has access to internet.
The second
factor is the awakening of the people to the massive looting by those who walk
the corridors of power.
The last but not
least factor is Anwar Ibrahim who was able to forge a working coalition among
PAS, DAP and PKR.
Hence, in the 12th
General Election, DAP flags were flying in Malay kampongs and PAS flags in Chinese New Villages in the northern
states.
For the first time
in Malaysian history, Malays voted for DAP and Chinese for PAS in the northern
states and this resulted in the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) losing four
states in the 12th General election.
However, the
political tsunami stopped in Ngeri Sembilan. Let us look at the 12th
General Election score sheets in Johor to see how voters had voted to find out
why this was a BN fixed deposit state; why PKR had considered Johor a frontline
state since early 2010 and frequently brought Anwar to Johor until it is no longer
a BN fixed deposit state?
DAP
and PAS
The 5
parliamentary seats below were contested by either DAP and PAS and at least a
state seat under it were contested by either PAS or DAP.
The percentage
under the column “PAS/DAP” and “DAP/PAS” indicates the percentage of PAS votes
as against DAP votes and DAP votes as against PAS votes respectively.
|
|
|
||||||
|
1
|
Segamat
|
||||||
|
Segamat
|
Buluh Kasap
|
PAS/DAP
|
DAP/PAS
|
||||
|
DAP
|
PAS
|
|
|
||||
|
Pekan Gemas Baru
(Chinese)
|
931
|
502
|
53.92%
|
|
|||
|
Buluh Kasap (Chinese)
|
|
808
|
699
|
86.51%
|
|
||
|
Palong Timor (Malay)
|
|
73
|
165
|
|
44.24%
|
||
|
2
|
Labis
|
||||||
|
Labis
|
Tenang
|
PAS/DAP
|
DAP/PAS
|
||||
|
DAP
|
PAS
|
|
|
||||
|
Bdr. Labis Timor
(Chinese)
|
818
|
740
|
90.46%
|
|
|||
|
Bdr. Labis Tengah
(Chinese)
|
1144
|
1013
|
88.55%
|
|
|||
|
Felda Tenang (Malay)
|
|
103
|
220
|
|
46.82%
|
||
|
Cemplak (Malay)
|
|
79
|
206
|
|
38.35%
|
||
|
3
|
Ayer
Hitam
|
||||||
|
Ayer Hitam
|
Yong Peng
|
PAS/DAP
|
DAP/PAS
|
||||
|
PAS
|
DAP
|
|
|
||||
|
Yong Peng
Utara(Chinese)
|
517
|
1338
|
38.64%
|
|
|||
|
Bdr. Yong Peng Selatan
(Chinese)
|
313
|
739
|
42.35%
|
|
|||
|
Sri Sepakat (Malay)
|
|
60
|
30
|
|
50.00%
|
||
|
Taman Jelita (Chinese)
|
|
253
|
808
|
31.31%
|
|
||
|
4
|
Kluang
|
||||||
|
Kluang
|
Mahkota
|
PAS/DAP
|
DAP/PAS
|
||||
|
DAP
|
PAS
|
|
|
||||
|
Kg. Melayu Timor II
(Chinese)
|
1289
|
963
|
74.71%
|
|
|||
|
Kg. Tengah (Chinese)
|
|
716
|
707
|
98.74%
|
|
||
|
Kg. Melayu 1 (Melayu)
|
|
148
|
321
|
|
46.11%
|
||
|
Mesjid Lama (Melayu)
|
|
143
|
215
|
|
66.51%
|
||
|
5
|
Tg. Piai
|
||||||
|
Both Malay candidates
|
Tg. Piai
|
Kukup
|
PAS/DAP
|
DAP/PAS
|
|||
|
DAP
|
PAS
|
|
|
||||
|
Kg.Rimbah Terjun
|
|
392
|
331
|
84.44%
|
|
||
|
Rimbah
|
|
|
391
|
261
|
66.75%
|
|
|
|
Permas Kechii
|
|
421
|
258
|
61.28%
|
|
||
|
Sungai Durian
|
|
201
|
126
|
62.69%
|
|
||
The first four
parliamentary seats were contested by a Chinese if it is a DAP seat and by a
Malay if it is a PAS seat. All these four areas showed similar trend. That is a
large number of Chinese who voted for a DAP candidate did not vote for a PAS
candidate and a large number of Malays who voted for PAS did not vote for DAP.
Hence, despite
the fact that DAP contested predominantly Chinese seats, it could not win more
than five seats due to a large number of Malays who voted for PAS did not vote for DAP.
This was equally
true for PAS due to a large number of Chinese who voted for DAP did not vote
for PAS. This revealed the real reason as to why the political tsunami failed
to reach Johor.
The 5th
parliamentary seat was contested by a Malay candidate from DAP. A large number
of voters who voted for a Malay from DAP did not vote for a Malay from PAS.
The question is
has this trend changed five years on in February 2013? If it has changed, which
way has it changed?
Will all Chinese
in Johor who will vote for DAP will also vote for PAS? Will all Malays in Johor
who will vote for PAS will also vote for DAP? Or they have not changed?
Would it be wise
to believe that the voters in Johor have changed and hence, just work on one
race and then rely on the other party be it PAS or DAP to deliver votes of the
other races? Or, is it simply wiser to work on all races with top priority
given to swing the Malays voters?
DAP
and PKR
How Johor voters
had voted in the 12th General Election when faced with a Chinese
candidate in both the Parliamentary and the State seat?
The two
parliamentary seats below were contested by PKR and the state seat under it was
contested by DAP. The percentage under the column “PKR/DAP” and “DAP/PKR”
indicates the percentage of PKR votes as against DAP votes and DAP votes as
against PKR votes respectively.
|
Ledang
|
||||||
|
Both Chinese
candidates
|
Ledang
|
Tangkak
|
PKR/DAP
|
DAP/PKR
|
||
|
PKR
|
DAP
|
|
|
|||
|
Jalan Sialang (Malay)
|
|
381
|
382
|
99.74%
|
|
|
|
Kg Solok (Malay)
|
|
158
|
145
|
|
91.77%
|
|
|
Bandar Tangkak Timor
(Chinese)
|
986
|
979
|
|
99.29%
|
||
|
Bandar Tangkak Selatan
(Chinese)
|
983
|
962
|
|
97.86%
|
||
|
Sembrong
|
||||||
|
Both Chinese
candidates
|
Sembrong
|
Paloh
|
PKR/DAP
|
DAP/PKR
|
||
|
PKR
|
DAP
|
|
|
|||
|
Kg.Melayu Paloh
(Malay)
|
|
48
|
56
|
85.71%
|
|
|
|
Bandar Paloh Utara
(Chinese)
|
774
|
834
|
92.81%
|
|
||
|
Bandar Paloh Selatan
(Chinese)
|
351
|
361
|
97.23%
|
|
||
|
Pengkalan Tereh(Malay)
|
|
5
|
6
|
83.33%
|
|
|
It is noted that
PKR’s Chinese candidate secured slightly more votes from all races in Tangkak
and slightly lesser votes in Paloh as compared to DAP’s Chinese candidates.
Overall, if the Chinese sentiment in the 12th General Election is still
applicable, there is no basis to the claim by DAP that it can secure higher (at
least 5% or more) Chinese votes than a PKR Chinese candidate. In general, more
Chinese dumped BN but not as many as in the northern states.
PAS
and PKR
How Johor voters
had voted in the 12th General Election when faced with a Malay
candidate in both the Parliamentary and the State seat?
The three
parliamentary seats below were contested by PKR and the state seat under it was
contested by PAS. The percentage under the column “PKR/PAS” and “PAS/PKR”
indicates the percentage of PKR votes as against PAS votes and PAS votes as
against PKR votes respectively.
|
Muar
|
||||||
|
Both Malay candidates
|
Muar
|
Sg. Balang
|
PKR/PAS
|
PAS/PKR
|
||
|
PKR
|
PAS
|
|
|
|||
|
Sri Menanti (Malay)
|
|
260
|
341
|
76.25%
|
|
|
|
Sungai Balang (Malay)
|
|
277
|
360
|
76.94%
|
|
|
|
Bdr. Parit Jawa Utara
(Chinese)
|
501
|
478
|
|
95.41%
|
||
|
Bdr. Parit Jawa
Selatan (Chinese)
|
470
|
447
|
|
95.11%
|
||
|
|
||||||
|
Batu Pahat
|
||||||
|
Both Malay candidates
|
Batu Pahat
|
Senggarang
|
PKR/PAS
|
PAS/PKR
|
||
|
PKR
|
PAS
|
|
|
|||
|
Petani Kechik (Malay)
|
|
386
|
375
|
|
97.15%
|
|
|
Sg. Ayam (Malay)
|
|
263
|
281
|
93.59%
|
|
|
|
Kg. Baru (Chinese)
|
|
846
|
712
|
|
84.16%
|
|
|
Bdr. Senggarang Timor
(Chinese)
|
211
|
250
|
84.40%
|
|
||
|
Pontian
|
||||||
|
Both Malay candidates
|
Pontian
|
Pulai Pert'ng
|
PKR/PAS
|
PAS/PKR
|
||
|
PKR
|
PAS
|
|
|
|||
|
Jalan Taib (Chinese)
|
|
671
|
520
|
|
77.50%
|
|
|
Balek (Chinese)
|
|
762
|
569
|
|
74.67%
|
|
|
Pt. Semerah (Malay)
|
|
261
|
349
|
74.79%
|
|
|
|
Pt. Kudus (Malay)
|
|
151
|
276
|
54.71%
|
|
|
It is noted that
in general, the Chinese prefer a Malay candidate from PKR. However, there were
mixed results (as in Batu Pahat and Tanjung Piai) when it comes to a situation
of Malays voting for both Malay candidates, either from PKR, PAS or DAP.
Conclusion
If the sentiment
and behaviour of the voters in the 12th General Election continues,
then DAP could not help PAS to get more Chinese votes and PAS could not help
DAP to get more Malay votes in Johor. PAS have to work harder in the Chinese
areas and DAP have to work harder in the Malay areas in Johor. Also, DAP’s
claim that it can get higher Chinese votes (at least 5% or more) than a PKR’s
Chinese candidate in Johor cannot be substantiated with the 12th
General Election Chinese voters’ tendency.
It is
interesting to note that if the Chinese sentiment of the 12th
General Election remains, then the Johor Chinese, in general, prefers a Malay
candidate from PKR but it is difficult to predict how Malays in Johor would
choose. Hence, the political tendency of the Johor Malays in the 13th
General Election is critical for both BN and PR.
It is the above facts
that stimulated PKR to schedule Anwar frequently to the Malay heartland since
the middle of 2010. Johor PKR chief and PKR vice-president Chua Jui Meng was
appointed to assist him to make inroad into the Malay heartland. However, Anwar
was not given the chance to speak in the initial months by the police.
He was not
allowed to speak in Bukit Batu, Kulai and Rengit, Batu Pahat. However, Anwar’s
persistence bore fruits as political speeches in various parts of Johor
featuring him began to draw larger and larger crowds after PKR had threaten to
take legal action against the local authorities and the police for abusing their
power. Chua and Anwar had chiseled off BN’s fortress in Johor.
PKR wishes to
seal the support of the Malays in Johor before the 13th General
Election by bringing Anwar to Rengit again and probably the last in Johor. Are
Malays in Johor ready for Anwar?
Steven Choong
Shiau Yoon
Johor PKR Election
Director
